The Case For Blake Snell

This past offseason, I was very strongly against the Mets pursuing Blake Snell. I don’t particularly like his numbers and the fact that he’s very much a modern pitcher giving you short even if affective outings. Back when the Yankees were offering him $150 million over 5 years I thought that was nuts, and even more nuts that Snell turned it down. Coming into the trade deadline, Snell was even less appealing to me. He’s a guy who walks too many hitters and doesn’t get far into games, he fixes none of the issues that this Mets rotation currently has an is just another starter I viewed as forcing the bullpen to work overtime. Now, with Fedde heading to St. Louis, Flaherty appeared heading to the Yankees, Eflin with the Orioles and the Rangers looking to buy, taking Eovaldi out of the mix, it’s time to re-evalutate.

The Mets were apparently shocked by the high asking prices on the starting pitching market, so much so that there’s been doubt as too whether or not they’ll get another starter at all. I’m still wrapping my head around the Erick Fedde deal that seems like the Cardinals won in a landslide, but the Mets are in a really difficult position. You want to trade for a guy that moves the needle but, what are really the options? My Skubal mock deal in my 6 Delusional Mets Deadline Deals article is laughable looking back, and the amount of prospects it’s going to take to get him if Detroit are even willing to part ways with him would be through the roof. I can only expect the same for Crochet unless you could make some ridiculous 3 team deal like the Cardinals did with Fedde which seriously I haven’t figured out yet. So here comes Blake Snell, out of nowhere, as the “Ok, maybe we need to look at this guy seriously”.

Snell is going to opt into his 2025 player option worth $30 million unless he’s completely nuts, so that’s a large financial commitment any interested team would need to make. Really the only teams I see even remotely looking into trading for Snell are the Dodgers and Mets. The Yankees might have been on this list, but given their interest in Jack Flaherty I’m going to take them off the starting pitching market. The Giants are likely going to be hesitant to make any trades to the Dodgers and will likely ask for more from them in any hypothetical Snell deals, so this is essentially about the Mets weighing the risks/pros and cons, and deciding whether or not to take a chance. He’s theirs for the taking but do they really want him?

The reality is the Mets need a starter, badly. You cannot be a serious contender with Tylor Megil and David Peterson making regular starts for your team, you can’t. Due to Snell’s price tag financially, the Mets likely wouldn’t need to give up an extremely high level prospect to bring him in, and if the Mets wanted to, the could attempt to bring in one of the Giants relief pitchers such as one of the Rogers brothers to kill two birds with one stone. The problem with committing to Snell is what it means for the upcoming offseason. It’s no secret the Mets want to take their shot at Soto, it’s no secret Met fans want Alonso back (I’d still target Walker but point stands), and I’m personally hoping the Mets take a run at Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. As much money as Steve Cohen has, eventually there has to be a sense of reality. Not all of this is going to happen, and with bringing in Snell and essentially committing to $30 million extra on the payroll for 2025, that really starts to limit your offseason more than the Mets would have hoped in 2025.

But like I said, the Mets need a starter. While inconsistent it would be simply untrue to say that Blake Snell isn’t an elite pitcher when he’s at his best. Regardless of how you look at either of his Cy Young awards, winning the award in both the AL and NL is still nothing short of a major accomplishment and he’s still only 31. Snell’s early season struggles can very easily be attributed to his lack of spring training, and he’s been brilliant in his last 4 starts including 15 strikeouts in 6 innings against the Rockies on Saturday. Snell has been relatively strong as a postseason pitcher hosting a 3.33 ERA in 12 appearances (10 starts) something that you like as a team with postseason aspirations. And most interestingly, Snell has been a significantly better second half pitcher for ever season of his major league career. He has never had a season where his first half ERA was lower than his ERA post All Star Break, and his career ERA before the break stands at 3.98. After the break? 2.44. The Mets and Steve Cohen have not been afraid to flex their financially flexibility in the past, and the need for a starter is clear. If the commitment remains to build a strong farm system and not give up any of your top guys, eating money and bringing in a 2 time Cy Young award winner who appears to be finding himself back in his best form as of recent is a very appealing move. I was once very against the Mets going after Blake Snell, but it might very well be the smartest move they could make at this point in time.