Mets Off Day Notes: September 12th 2024

A gutsy, much needed rally from the Mets offense in the top of the 9th yesterday in Toronto took what would have been the roughest loss of the season, and turned it into one of their most important wins. Francisco Lindor shut down any ideas that he’s out of the NL MVP race by breaking up Torontos Bowden Francis’ no-hit bid to open up the top of the 9th. More importantly we saw improved at bats from guys like Pete Alonso and of course Francisco Alvarez, both of which they’re going to need if they want to make a push into October. Washington helped out by beating Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves allowing the Mets go into the off-day a game ahead Atlanta, with all 4 major NL wildcard candidates having an off day on Thursday. There are still plenty of question marks going into the Mets high intensity series in Philly, and the Mets are going to have to try and look at what’s working, what isn’t, and put the pieces in place that give them the best chances of winning, regardless of who may be getting opportunities.

We saw Carlos Mendoza trying a lot early in the season to switch up the lineup while the offense was struggling until he found something that stuck. This was something that myself among many others praised him for especially given how defensive and stubborn Buck Showalter had been about keeping his lineup the same nearly every night of 2023. Now, this is a method that I was very happy to see early in the season to try and get the offense to wake up, it’s concerning to see at this point in this season. And it’s not Carlos Mendoza’s fault that this offense is starting off September as one of the worst of the season for them, but how much switching and swapping is going to get results? Pete Alonso has been bad with RISP the entire season, Brandon Nimmo has been a bottom 10 hitter in the NL since the ASG, Starling Marte has been mediocre at the plate and can’t field, Francisco Alvarez has actually been worse than Brandon Nimmo at the plate, JD Martinez is still clutch but it’s like they Space Jam’d the power out of his bat after June, and how in the world is DJ Stewart getting at bats.

The reality is, at this point in the season, the offense needs to pick it up or accept that they won’t be a playoff team. 16 games isn’t going to magically get Alonso his massive contract, but should he perform against Philly and Atlanta in these last weeks, it would completely erase the months of disappointment from the Mets All-Star First Baseman. And, to shockingly speak positively of Pete, there’s reason to believe he will come up big to end the season. Pete’s OPS this season against the Braves is a massive 1.030, and he has an OPS of .915 against the Phillies. The Mets are going to need this version of Pete Alonso, especially in spots where you’d expect your cleanup hitter to come through. We’ve talked about it all season but Alonso has an OPS of .958 leading off an inning, however when he comes up with RISP, something you’d expect to happen often with your cleanup hitter, he has a poor .698 OPS.

I’ve said that the time for switching and swapping has long passed, but the question remains as to how the Mets should arrange their lineup to end the regular season. How can lineup structure help you to get the most out of JD Martinez, Jesse Winker, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, all the key bats. Brandon Nimmo needs to be moved down the lineup, he has been awful at the plate and he’s run out of time to “Get it right” in terms of staying at the top of the lineup this season. In most cases, we’d be looking at moving Lindor into perhaps the 3 hole to make the most of his production. However he’s clicked so well with hitting in that leadoff spot, there’s not a chance that you’d move him now and mess with that. The question is how do you order Vientos/Winker/Alonso/Martinez/Nimmo, in order to make sure all of them are seeing the best possible pitches and that the offense is producing at a higher level.

I’ve mentioned in past papers that I’m puzzled as to why Tyrone Taylor has not gotten more starts in right field over Starling Marte. They’re quite similar offensively, and defensively Taylor is significantly better. Taylor has the ability to send a ball into the stands at a better rate than both Marte and Bader, and honestly right now he feels more likely to put a ball in the seats than Nimmo. Taylor isn’t a speed demon, but he’s also got a decent amount of juice on the basepaths that allows you to get a bit more creative with things. I think getting Taylor into the lineup, perhaps somewhere like the 7 hole will help to lengthen out this lineup a bit.

The Mets will hope that the Dodgers can do them a favor this weekend against Atlanta, especially with the odds of sweeping Philadelphia being quite low. Francisco Lindor is still my current pick for NL MVP, but it would be nice if Ohtani played like an MVP for the Dodgers in their series against Atlanta and make the Mets lives a bit easier. Regardless the Mets can only focus on their own games, if they play the way they’re supposed to, the results will follow. They’re going into their weekend series against division rival Phillies, on the exact momentum swing that they needed. As far as the Mets should be concerned, the playoffs begin on Friday. Every game from here on out is a must win, can this raging hot starting pitching stay dominant, and can Lindor get some help from someone not named Mark Vientos on the offensive side of things? Only time will tell, but this should be a very fun weekend in both the NL Wildcard and NL MVP race.