Mets Playoff Hopes and Lindor's MVP Campaign Must Run Through the East

Following a tough loss to the Reds Sunday afternoon, the Mets are still in a great position following their longest winning streak since 2018. They currently hold the third Wildcard Spot along with Atlanta, and only sit a game and a half behind the Diamondbacks for the 2nd wildcard position. The Mets will need to take care of business against the underwhelming Blue Jays as they will only have one more series against a team below .500 the rest of the season (at home against the Nats). The reality however is that regardless of how well they do against those 2, it won’t matter if they can’t get the job done against their division rivals. As fun as it would be to talk about taking all 7 from Philly and making a run at the division, the goal needs to be making sure they go into Atlanta at the least within 3 games, controlling their own destiny.

Their final season series against Atlanta feels very reminiscent of their matchup at the end of 2022, I however anticipate a different outcome. The Mets went into their big series against Atlanta in 2022 struggling through their worst month of the season, and watching an offense that had been brilliant in the early months of the season slow down tremendously, with the Mets calling up multiple prospects looking for someone to provide a spark. The Mets are currently playing the best baseball in the majors, and have been doing so for multiple months. This looks like a team filled with confidence and a desire to win, unlike the 2022 team that looked like they had run out of steam before they even got to the finish line.

The Mets having been getting brilliant starting pitching as well as seeing the best versions of Reed Garret, Edwin Diaz, and Danny Young as of recent out of the pen. The question is, how much can the Mets rely on their pitching staff to be the catalyst for this final push to secure a postseason spot. It’s a small sample size of course, being only 7 games, but the Mets have started off September as their worst month of the season offensively. Through their first 7 games of the month they own a .219 AVG and .669 OPS as a unit. Those numbers are particularly concerning with the injury of Jeff McNeil who had been one of the Mets best hitters in the second half. Carlos Mendoza has shown a willingness to switch things up, and he’s going to need to find a way to push the right buttons if he wants to manage October Baseball in his rookie year. Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso need to be moved down the lineup, and I’d really like to see Tyrone Taylor get some reps in the upcoming Toronto series to see whether he’s a possible options for some of those games coming up against the Phillies.

As has been the case this entire season however, the responsibility will fall to Francisco Lindor. When he performs, the team follows, when he struggles, so does the rest of the team. Francisco Lindor is still very much in the MVP race, however performing in the last month will decide whether his chances to beat Ohtani are real or not. Of all the praises I will sing for Lindor, there is one very clear dark spot in his pathway to MVP, and that’s his performance against the top of the division. While he posted an OPS of .967 against Washington and .918 against Miami this year, his numbers against Atlanta and Philly are not pretty. An OPS of .538 against Atlanta and an abysmal .327 OPS against Philly. The Mets need the best version of Francisco Lindor to end the season, having been the best player in the National league since May, he cannot take his foot off of the gas now.

The Mets and Braves share a 5-5 record against each other this season, and with the closeness of the wildcard race, the tiebreaker takes on an extra meaning. Neither team can bank on a collapse from San Diego or Arizona, and the Mets have by far the more difficult schedule for the last couple of weeks of the regular season. Don’t expect Philly to be doing them any favors either, not only do they need to solidify their place as the leaders of the NL East, but I’d imagine they have no issue with facing Atlanta in October a 3rd year in a row, in fact I’d be willing to bet they’re looking forward to the chance. The Mets need to play strong baseball all around, and the offense needs to figure things out before the pitching final falls back down to earth (I’m looking at you Megil). Not to be lost in all of this, The Mets final series of the season is in Milwaukee to face the Brewers. They have a grand total of 3 wins in Milwaukee since 2017, 3 wins total. It would very much benefit the Mets to go into that series without a playoff spot being up in the air. They will have their shot against Atlanta the series before, it’s time to erase the demons of 2022 and make a statement to the league.